US student visas issued to Indian nationals plummeted 62% during the peak 2025 admissions season, falling from 58,694 to just 22,149, according to a Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) analysis of State Department data. The collapse is not a single event but the compounding effect of four overlapping policy changes: tightened F-1 visa screening, a DHS final rule ending "duration of status," a proposed $100,000 OPT fee, and a USCIS memo squeezing the H-1B-to-green-card pipeline. Together, they represent the most significant restructuring of the US international student system in a generation.
Last verified: 2026-08-07 · F-1 visas to Indians down 62% YoY · DHS fixed-stay rule effective Sept 15, 2026 · $100K OPT fee under consideration · H-1B green card path narrowed May 22, 2026
How far did Indian student visas fall in 2025?
Indian nationals received 22,149 F-1 visas between May and August 2025 — the peak processing window before the fall semester — down from 58,694 during the same period in 2024, a 62% year-over-year decline. The drop is also 60% below the average of 55,717 visas issued during the same months across 2017–2019 and 2021–2024 (excluding 2020, which was disrupted by the pandemic). The data comes from an analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies, published August 3, 2026, drawing on State Department visa issuance records. The May–August window is critical because in 2024, 77% of all F-1 visas for Indian nationals were issued during these four months.
Chinese nationals saw a smaller but still steep decline: 40,034 F-1 visas during May–August 2025, down 34% from 61,075 in the same period of 2024, and 46% below their pre-2025 average. Worldwide, the US issued approximately 97,000 fewer F-1 visas globally during this window compared to 2024 — a 36% drop.
India remained the largest source of international students in the US with 363,019 enrolled during the 2024–25 academic year, followed by China with 265,919. Together, the two countries accounted for 53% of the total 1,177,766 international students, according to Institute of International Education data cited in the CIS report.
What policy changes are driving the student visa decline?
Four distinct policy moves, layered between May 2025 and July 2026, are reshaping the pathway from Indian student to American worker. None alone explains the 62% drop. All four together do.
1. Tightened F-1 visa screening and social media vetting
In late May 2025, the State Department temporarily paused student visa interviews for several weeks to prepare for expanded vetting procedures. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the pause was intended to implement enhanced social media screening. Interviews resumed on June 18, 2025, but the damage was done: the pause consumed much of the peak processing window, and the new screening requirements — including mandatory public social media settings and disclosure of all usernames used in the previous five years — added friction and uncertainty. July 2025 saw just 2,081 F-1 visas issued to Indian nationals, compared to tens of thousands in a typical peak month.
2. DHS ends "duration of status" for F-1 students
On July 16, 2026, DHS published a final rule replacing the long-standing "duration of status" (D/S) framework with a fixed period of admission. The rule takes effect September 15, 2026.
Under the old system, F-1 students could remain in the US for the duration of their academic program as long as they maintained valid student status, with a DSO simply updating their SEVIS record. Under the new rule:
- Students are admitted for the length of their program as listed on their Form I-20, capped at four years. Students in English or foreign language training programs face a stricter 24-month cap.
- Anyone needing more time must file Form I-539 (Application to Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status) with USCIS, pay a $470 base fee, and appear for biometrics — a process that was previously handled administratively by their school.
- The post-completion grace period is cut from 60 days to 30 days, giving graduates half the time to depart, transfer, change status, or apply for OPT.
- Graduate students face a complete prohibition on program changes at any point. Undergraduates cannot change degree programs, majors, or educational levels in their first year.
- Unlawful presence begins accruing automatically the day after the I-94 expires, rather than requiring a formal USCIS finding — meaning overstaying by more than 180 days triggers a 3-year re-entry bar, and over 1 year triggers a 10-year bar.
The rule drew more than 34,800 public comments during the comment period, the overwhelming majority in opposition. DHS estimates the annual cost at $443–449 million.
3. The proposed $100,000 OPT fee
The Trump administration is weighing a $100,000 fee on the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows international graduates to work in the US for one to three years after completing their degrees, according to a Wall Street Journal report published July 30, 2026. The fee is still under discussion at DHS; no policy has been finalized, and a DHS spokeswoman said no proposal should be treated as final until formally announced.
The proposal follows the administration's unsuccessful attempt to impose a similar $100,000 fee on H-1B visas. That fee, introduced by presidential proclamation on September 19, 2025, was struck down on June 8, 2026 by U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin of the District of Massachusetts, who ruled it was an unconstitutional tax that exceeded presidential authority. The ruling has been stayed pending appeal to the First Circuit.
OPT's scale makes the proposed fee consequential: 294,253 international graduates participated in OPT during the 2024–25 academic year, including 143,740 Indian nationals and 61,981 Chinese nationals. In STEM OPT specifically, 165,524 authorizations were issued in 2024 — 79,331 to Indians and 33,807 to Chinese students. By 2024, the total number of people working under OPT and STEM OPT reached 505,590, a scale comparable to the entire H-1B program.
Whether students, universities, or employers would pay the fee remains undecided. Because major technology and finance companies recruit graduates directly from US campuses and then convert them from student visas to H-1Bs, an OPT fee would hit those companies more directly than the H-1B fee did.
4. The H-1B green card squeeze
On May 22, 2026, USCIS issued Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199, declaring that adjustment of status (filing Form I-485 from within the US) is now reserved for "extraordinary circumstances" only. Most green card applicants currently in the US on temporary visas are expected to return to their home countries and process through consular processing at a US embassy.
USCIS spokesperson Zach Kahler said: "We're returning to the original intent of the law to ensure aliens navigate our nation's immigration system properly. From now on, an alien who is in the U.S. temporarily and wants a Green Card must return to their home country to apply, except in extraordinary circumstances."
The memo explicitly states that dual-intent status — a hallmark of the H-1B visa, which allows workers to pursue a green card without risking their current status — is "not sufficient, on its own" to guarantee a favorable exercise of discretion. H-1B holders are in a better position than F-1 students but are still subject to the new "totality of circumstances" discretionary standard.
What is the H-1B green card backlog for Indian nationals?
Indian nationals hold approximately 72% of all H-1B visa approvals — roughly 300,000 petitions per year — yet face the same 7% per-country cap on employment-based green cards as every other nation, a limit set at 8 U.S.C. § 1152. With approximately 140,000 employment-based green cards available annually and a 7% cap, no single country can receive more than roughly 9,800 visas per year.
The result: as of the June 2026 Visa Bulletin, the EB-2 category for India is processing petitions filed in September 2013, and EB-3 is processing cases from December 2013. An Indian professional filing a new green card petition today is getting in line behind every Indian applicant who has filed in the past 12+ years. According to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis of USCIS data cited by Forbes, more than 1.2 million Indians — including dependents — were waiting in the employment-based green card backlog as of November 2023.
The May 22, 2026 policy memo does not address this backlog. It adds an obstacle on top of a system that was already nearly unworkable for the majority of Indian H-1B holders: now they may also need to leave the US and wait in their home country for consular processing, where immigrant visa interview wait times at many posts stretch 12–24 months.
How do tech leaders and educators view these changes?
The response from Silicon Valley has been swift and pointed.
Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, wrote on X on May 22, 2026: "Does this mean AI Researchers, employees, and students will now have to leave the country and wait through a backlog process to continue their work?" He added: "Harmful move for tech, business, and America broadly."
Andrew Ng, AI entrepreneur and co-founder of Coursera, posted on X the same day: "The new White House policy requiring green card applicants to apply from outside the US is a capricious attack on legal immigration. It will hurt families, leave us with fewer doctors, teachers and scientists, and hurt American competitiveness in AI."
Garry Tan, president of Y Combinator, called the policy "bad and misguided."
Nick Davidov, founder of Davidovs Venture Collective, wrote: "So everyone on an O-1 or H-1B would have to stop working legally in the US, go back to their country and wait for years of backlog? This includes top scientists in our universities, founders of billion dollar companies."
The administration's position, articulated by USCIS spokesperson Zach Kahler, is that these policies restore immigration law to its original intent: "When aliens fly from their home country, it reduces the need to find and remove those who decide to slip into the shadows and remain in the U.S. illegally after being denied residency."
What does this mean for students, employers, and the tech sector?
For prospective Indian students: The combined effect of tighter screening, a four-year stay cap, a halved grace period, and the possibility of a $100,000 OPT fee fundamentally changes the cost-benefit calculus of a US education. Students in PhD programs (which often exceed four years), dual-degree candidates, and anyone considering a mid-program change of major face new administrative barriers. The 30-day grace period means graduating students must begin planning departure, OPT applications, or status changes immediately.
For tech employers: Companies that recruit directly from US universities and pipeline graduates through OPT to H-1B face the most disruption. An OPT fee would directly raise the cost of this hiring pipeline, while the AOS memo creates uncertainty for retention — employees with pending green card applications may face the choice of leaving the US for consular processing or risking denial. With India's AI talent gap widening and Indian companies investing in domestic AI infrastructure, the pipeline runs both ways: some talent may simply choose to build elsewhere.
For US universities: The 62% decline in Indian student visas threatens a major revenue stream. International students typically pay full tuition, and many universities depend on this revenue to cross-subsidize domestic students and research. A sustained drop could affect programs, faculty hiring, and institutional budgets.
For India's tech sector: The changes create a potential talent boomerang. With over 1.2 million Indians in the green card backlog and new obstacles to the H-1B-to-green-card transition, experienced professionals may increasingly choose to return to India, where global capability centers are expanding rapidly and AI investment is surging. This is already visible in the structural hiring shifts at Indian IT firms and in the broader push to build India's own AI delivery hubs.
How the four changes interact: a comparison
| Policy change | Effective date | Who is affected | Key constraint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tightened F-1 screening + social media vetting | June 2025 (ongoing) | All F-1 applicants from India and China | Mandatory public social media; 5-year username disclosure |
| DHS ends duration of status | September 15, 2026 | All F-1 and J-1 holders | 4-year max stay; 30-day grace; Form I-539 for extensions |
| Proposed $100,000 OPT fee | Under discussion | International graduates and their employers | Not yet finalized; outcome of H-1B fee case is precedent |
| USCIS AOS Policy Memo PM-602-0199 | May 22, 2026 | All temporary visa holders seeking green cards | Consular processing default; AOS reserved for "extraordinary circumstances" |
The compounding effect is significant: a student who clears the tougher F-1 screening must then navigate a fixed stay limit, faces a potentially unaffordable OPT fee, and — if they secure an H-1B — confronts a green card process that may require leaving the US to wait years in a consular backlog that is itself broken.
FAQ
Q: How many F-1 student visas were issued to Indian nationals in 2025? A: The US issued 22,149 F-1 visas to Indian nationals between May and August 2025, down 62% from 58,694 in the same period of 2024, according to a Center for Immigration States analysis of State Department data.
Q: When does the DHS duration of status rule take effect? A: The DHS final rule ending duration of status takes effect September 15, 2026. F-1 and J-1 visa holders admitted after that date will receive a fixed admission period tied to their program end date, capped at four years, plus a 30-day grace period.
Q: What is the proposed OPT fee and who would pay it? A: The Trump administration is considering a $100,000 fee on the Optional Practical Training program, which allows international graduates to work in the US for one to three years after graduation. It has not been decided whether students, universities, or employers would pay. The proposal is still under discussion at DHS and has not been finalized.
Q: Why was the $100,000 H-1B fee struck down? A: On June 8, 2026, U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin of the District of Massachusetts ruled the $100,000 H-1B fee was an unconstitutional tax that exceeded presidential authority and violated the Administrative Procedure Act. The ruling has been stayed pending appeal to the First Circuit.
Q: How long is the green card wait for Indian nationals? A: As of the June 2026 Visa Bulletin, the EB-2 category for India is processing petitions filed in September 2013, and EB-3 is processing December 2013 cases. More than 1.2 million Indians — including dependents — are waiting in the employment-based green card backlog, according to NFAP analysis of USCIS data.
Q: Do H-1B visa holders need to leave the US to apply for a green card now? A: Under USCIS Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199 (May 22, 2026), adjustment of status from within the US is now reserved for "extraordinary circumstances." Most green card applicants are expected to use consular processing from their home country. H-1B holders have dual-intent status, which helps but does not guarantee approval under the new discretionary standard.
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